The Consequences of Taliban’s Return, between the Danger of Terrorism and the Flow of Refugees

As the US forces started withdrawing from Afghanistan, Taliban’s gradual advance soon accelerated unexpectedly, till all of Afghanistan became under their control. The military forces of the Afghan government surrendered without much resistance and their weapons were seized by Taliban. 

Significance and interpretation

The quick surrender of Kabul can be interpreted in the light of a number of factors, the most important of which are the following:

1-   US has failed to rebuild the Afghan state: 

Taliban’s success in regaining control over Kabul brings into focus the failure of the policies adopted by the US over the past twenty years with the aim of reestablishing the authority of the state in Afghanistan. The reason for this failure is that the US was not able to understand the very special nature of Afghanistan, its dominant values, and the status of Islam there, not to mention US failure to establish powerful and uncorrupted institutions. US failure was particularly manifested in rebuilding the Afghan army. Though the US spent around 89 billion USD to train about 300,000 soldiers, its attempt to turn the Afghan army into a modern, professional army was a complete fiasco. According to a report by Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), top leaders in the Afghan army always acted as ‘warlords’, and considered the army a golden goose that they always used to build relations with powerful figures and enhance favouritism. Therefore, Taliban did not find it difficult to re-seize Afghanistan in just a few days. 

2-   Taliban was keen to reassure foreign countries concerning its intentions:

Over the past years, it was obvious that Taliban favoured a pragmatic approach over its ideological belief and orientation. Taliban was obviously keen on reassuring the regional and international parties concerned with the Afghan crisis, and to show that it does not pose a threat anymore. For example, by signing the Doha agreement in February 2020, Taliban reassured the US that it will not let Afghanistan be used as a basis for launching attacks on other countries.  

Taliban also reassured its neighbours in Central Asia, the traditional allies of Russia, that it does not constitute a threat to them. On August 11, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu said: “What’s important to us is that the border with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan is also taken under the control of the Taliban”, pointing out that Taliban has promised not to cross to the republics of Central Asia. 

Besides, Taliban even reassured the leaders of China that it will not interfere in China’s internal affairs and will not, particularly, try to support Muslim Uyghurs in Xinjiang province. As Pakistan is always accused of supporting Taliban, it needs no reassuring from the Afghan movement. 

Last but not least, Taliban reassured Iran, its neighbor, that it will not pose any threat to Tehran. Initially, Iran expressed anxiety over the huge numbers of Afghan refugees that can cross the borders into the Iranian territories, but it seems that Taliban and Iran soon arrived at mutual understanding, due to their shared hostility to the US. This may result in further cooperation between Tehran and Taliban now that the latter has taken over again in Afghanistan. 

On entering Kabul, Taliban stressed that it wants to have a healthy relationship with the international community, and does not want to live in isolation. It promised that foreign embassies and diplomatic missions in Kabul will not be endangered.

3-   Taliban neutralized some forces inside Afghanistan: 

Over the past years, Taliban tried to project a less threatening image of itself, and to be more open to the Afghan society. In early 2019, Taliban’s spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said in an interview by Reuters: “If peace is restored, and Taliban is again in control, we will not follow the cruel approach that we adopted in 1996.” Taliban managed to strike many agreements with various forces in Afghanistan, such as chiefs of clans and tribes as well as local leaders, who, realizing common interests with Taliban, contributed thousands of fighters to the movement. 

After Taliban entered Kabul on August 15, its leaders were keen on reassuring the Afghan people about the future of the country, and the spokesperson of the movement Mohammad Naeem said that Taliban’s aim is to share authority with other local forces, and achieve stability in Afghanistan. 

Legitimate fears

There are certain expected implications (mostly negative) for the return of Taliban, as per the following:

1-   Afghanistan may become a terrorist haven again:  

The return of Taliban gives rise to fears concerning the increase in the activities of terrorist organization in Afghanistan, such as ISIS (in Khorasan) and al-Qaeda. It is known that Afghanistan’s ISIS consists of Taliban dissenters, despite that ISIS and Taliban had many confrontations in Afghanistan. However, ISIS later announced that it supports Taliban because they have common goals-namely, supporting Islam and fighting invaders. As for al-Qaeda, its chief Ayman Al-Zawahiri pledged allegiance to Taliban’s supreme leader Mullah Hebatullah Akhundzada in 2017. 

Thus, the worst fear regarding the return of Taliban has to do with the push it can give to other terrorist organization in other regions. Taliban is now an inspiration for other terrorist entities, having achieved victory after about 20 years of fighting. Therefore, Afghanistan may attract extremists from other countries, including Middle Easrern countries, especially as ISIS in Iraq and Syria is not as powerful as it used to be. 

2-   A new refugee crisis will break out: 

Because of Taliban’s return, the world is about to face a new refugee crisis, from Afghanistan this time, calling up to memory the crisis of Syrian refugees, which broke out over the past few years. Millions of Afghan citizens are expected to escape their houses, fearing Taliban’s oppression. There have been many international warnings of a humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, and of a more- than- likely rise in the number of refugees because of the conflict in the country. On August 13, UNHCR urged the international community to respond quickly to the crisis, and called on neighbouring countries to keep their borders with Afghanistan open. Iran is one of the countries which have always received huge numbers of Afghan refugees. Before the return of Taliban, about 3 million Afghan refugees entered Iran. Tehran may facilitate the crossing of these refugees to other countries, especially because of the economic crisis because of the sanctions. 

In this connection, Turkey and EU countries, notably France and Germany, are particularly on the alert. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on August 16 that Germany and other countries must provide support for countries that will host Afghan refugees. She also said that she is currently discussing joint efforts with French president Macron concerning the evacuation operations, which will include some Afghan citizens. 

3-   Afghans are in danger of losing their civil rights: 

Taliban is trying to reassure the Afghans, even promising to respect women rights, minority rights, and freedom of speech as long as this does not go against the creeds of Islam. However, people’s past experiences of Taliban’s rule make them doubtful. Women, in particular, are apprehensive of losing what they have achieved over the past 20 years. It is known that during Taliban’s rule (from 1996 to 2001), civil rights were severely oppressed, and women were deprived of their right to go to schools and universities and to work. 

Generally speaking, it can be said that Afghanistan has entered a new phase of its turbulent history with the return of Taliban. These developments have given rise to various fears on the international level, especially from countries, which can be directly affected by the return of Taliban.